There’s a betting outlet, at last, for American gamblers who follow the news.
Prediction markets, a rising new wagering platform, flourish with unconventional props.
Polymarket and Kalshi have taken the lead in this area, showcasing a daily betting menu of varied events. Many concern the United States government.
A high-profile Donald Trump presidency yields a bevy of wagering options. Potential Ukraine peace deals, DOGE cut totals, and the ripple effects of tariff wars forge a wide betting platform. Social media and 24-hour news content also make people more opinionated.
The two factors combined could propel this market.
Here’s a look at some of the big props currently on the board. They are all fluid, meaning that events create volatility and opportunity.
Examples of Polymarket props
Will there be a United States government shutdown in 2025?
Timing is everything.
Prices changed dramatically last Tuesday night, rewarding those who had gambled against it Tuesday afternoon.
Odds went from 55% “Yes” to 38% “Yes”, a titanic swing, after the U.S. House of Representatives passed a continuing resolution 217-213. The “CR” funds the government at current levels for the remainder of fiscal year 2025, ending Sept. 30. The Senate also passed the continuing resolution on Friday, avoiding a government shutdown.
A shutdown had been priced into the wagering. The “Yes” percentage had climbed to 55%, up from 51% on Monday night and 53% Tuesday morning. The money saying the funding deal would not get done, prompting the shutdown.
On Tuesday afternoon, the “Yes” bet was worth $185.20 for a $100 wager. “No” was $212.30 for a $100 wager. But after Tuesday’s development, the “No” bet on $100 only returned $158.
Those who wagered “No” last Tuesday afternoon look prophetic. They got that bet at the height of its value.
Trump had been lobbying and threatening Republican congressmen who looked ready to vote against this. That made the difference here.
Republicans hold a tenuous 218-214 House majority, meaning they can only afford one defection to get a measure through. That’s always a tall order in a body of votes this large. Some Republicans were against the CR, but they were pressured by their party.
The issue comes up again in September. The betting question becomes whether Trump has the same sway with congressional reps in six months.
Will the U.S. have a recession in 2025?
This was listed as a 43% chance Friday, up from 42%.
A $100 bet on “Yes” returned $232.56 as one was betting with the minority. A similar wager on “No” returned $172.41 as gamblers were betting with the “chalk”, or favorite.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official institution that declares when the U.S. enters a recession. Generally, two straight quarters of a drop in a country’s real gross domestic product (GDP) makes a recession official. The GDP is the value of all goods and services a country produces.
It would take reduced GDP numbers reported both at the end of March and June to trigger an official recession.
Consumer spending is a major component of the GDP and often moves in lockstep with the stock market, which has been plummeting.
The Dow Jones Industrials fell 900 points and the Nasdaq suffered its worst one-day performance since 2022 last Monday. Stock for Tesla, headed by Elon Musk, fell 15% in one day.
The tariff battle the U.S. has with Mexico, Canada, and China triggers fear with investors. Sensing that companies they own may be affected, investors sold off their stocks.
If consumers follow that cue, they will cut back spending, impacting this bet.
Examples of Kalshi prop
What will the U.S. unemployment rate be in March 2025?
Above 4.1% was priced at 56 cents on Friday, a betting premium. A $100 wager returned $179.
A “No” bet here returned $209 for $100.
This number has not moved much in the past six months. It has shifted between 4.0 and 4.2%.
The U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, despite forecasts indicating a 4.0% rate.
In the U.S., seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, rose to 242,000 for the week ending Feb. 22, 2025. That was a three-month high. However, that figure then fell to 221,000 the following week, ending March 1.
As of March 5, 952 federal employees have filed unemployment claims with Washington’s Employment Security Department this year — about double the number of claims from the same time period last year, which saw 472 claims.
Other predictions market props we’ve seen
The menu is diverse, and interesting, especially if you have an angle.
Just about anything you want is popping up at Polymarket and Kalshi
- What will the price of eggs be in March? There are categories ranging from the low $5 range to above $6.
- Which movie will have the biggest opening weekend?
- How many fed rate cuts in 2025?
- Over-Under for high temperatures in cities
- Aaron Rodgers’ next team? The New York Jets released him and Rodgers is rumored for the Pittsburgh Steelers.
For those who like to stay glued to the news, and predict the near future, insight may become income.
