While games and futures make up the majority of betting markets, the NFL Draft is its own unique entity. It is also the focal point of pro football’s continuously active offseason.
Kalshi has expanded in numerous ways to include individual games for the NBA and MLB, but the NFL Draft is not an event that has available trading. However, Polymarket does have plenty of options related to this three-day spectacle.
In examining the market and which specific bets crossover between the major sportsbooks and one of the premier sports prediction sites, here are a few that stand out with regard to their respective odds.
Where’s the value on Cam Ward at No. 1 overall?
Unsurprisingly, the first pick is a popular wager. The latest rumors have turned this selection, which will be made by Tennessee, into a formality. Miami Hurricane Cam Ward is set to become the Titans’ new quarterback.
Polymarket has the chances of this happening at 98.6% — meaning buying stock in “Yes” would cost players nearly a whole dollar and pay out an extra $0.06. In mid-February, Travis Hunter, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, was the top contender. However, after the combine and news reports, things changed quickly in Ward’s favor.
FanDuel and DraftKings offer lower value. As of Wednesday, Ward was -20000 to be the top choice — meaning a $10 bet would net just $0.05. The odds are more than twice as high as they were nearly a month ago, when DraftKings had it at -700 with Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter coming in at +380.
Quarterbacks are naturally the position discussed most often, especially when it comes to which franchises will take them and when.
Sportsbooks and Polymarket are mostly aligned when it comes to having “How many QBs drafted in Round 1 of the NFL Draft?” available. For the prediction market, players can buy any amount ranging from one to four. The highest percentage has changed in recent months. “Two quarterbacks” is the slight favorite at 43%. You can buy “Yes” stock for 50 cents.
“Three QBs” follows at 37%, with “Yes” priced at 45 cents.
FanDuel, DraftKings, and others offer an over/under at 2.5. Neither option has plus value. Over is set at -120 with a potential return on investment of $8.33 for a $10 bet, while the under is at -110. Both, of course, allow for a win with multiple outcomes (unlike the exact number requirement on Polymarket).
The Shedeur Sanders market
Where Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders lands is a mystery. Neither Polymarket nor the sportsbooks provide definitive favorites.
In late March, the New York Giants were the heavy frontrunners at 62%. However, the signings of veteran QBs Jameis Winston and Russell Wilson have lessened that number significantly. In fact, Winston’s and Wilson’s old teams — the Cleveland Browns and Pittsburgh Steelers — have risen as the likely landing spots for Sanders.
DraftKings’ current odds are just as narrow. Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and New York range from +200 to +215. FanDuel has much more disparity between the trio (and more chances for value): the Steelers at +250, the Giants at +350, and the Browns at +370. That said, betting on Cleveland with FanDuel would still net less than it would on Polymarket.
How about Ashton Jeanty? Jaxson Dart?
Pinning down the future organization for the draft’s top running back, Ashton Jeanty, is just as difficult — if not more. The line chart below from Polymarket tells the story. College football’s leading rusher in 2024 is touted as being one of the top talents in this draft pool. However, teams are more reluctant to use a high draft selection on a position with a relatively short shelf-life.
The Raiders (who hold the No. 5 pick) went from over 50% to 35% in a matter of days. The Bears are the current frontrunners and the Los Angeles Chargers aren’t far behind Las Vegas and Chicago. Because all three are so close together and none are above 40%, there’s a good opportunity for players to get a return on investment.
It’s a bit harder on the sportsbook side, unless someone bets (and wins) on Jeanty going from a Boise State Bronco to a Denver Bronco (with +1400 odds on FanDuel). It’s barely greater than even odds for him to be a Raider or be chosen by the Jacksonville Jaguars (each at +130).
While Hunter, Jeanty, and Sanders are locks to be taken among the initial 32 selections, there’s a question as to whether Jaxson Dart — the Ole Miss quarterback who threw for more than 4,200 yards in 2024 — will be among those whose name is called during the first round.
There’s less ambiguity when it comes to this selection. Polymarket only allows for users to purchase “Yes” stock, which is priced at $0.89. It would result in a positive return, but just $1.24. DraftKings provides the option for players to choose from a host of players with respective first round numbers. Dart at -250 (and a $14 total payout) potentially allows for a higher profit than on Polymarket.
The $3,000-plus placed on this wager is at Polymarket on the lower end when it comes to player input. For comparison, “How many QBs drafted in Round 1 of the NFL Draft?” is taking in more than $31,000, while trying to figure out “Which team will draft Shedeur Sanders?” is over $120,000, and the top pick wagers are north of $4 million.
