The NBA Playoffs naturally invite plenty of betting action. While sportsbook giants like FanDuel and DraftKings are certain to receive their share of wagers, the success of prediction markets during the NCAA Tournament may signal a bump this spring. The chances of that were further enhanced when Kalshi announced the platform would launch betting on NBA playoff games.
In looking at some of the markets available, here’s how the books match up with the prediction sites.
Note: These odds were as of Wednesday prior to the play-in winners being determined.
What the prediction markets say
Leading the way for championship odds are the Oklahoma City Thunder, who finished with the league’s best record at 68-14.
Polymarket gives OKC a 34% chance of winning the title, its highest number all season. The Boston Celtics are next at 28%, but as recently as mid-March held better odds than the Thunder. The defending champions peaked at 31% in early November and have received a higher volume than Oklahoma City.
The gap is a bit closer on Kalshi. OKC has a 33% chance with Boston at 31%. The two traded the best percentages from the middle of February until early March.
No team has been getting more money than the Los Angeles Lakers. The LeBron James and Luka Dončić-led club has a volume of over $11 million on Polymarket — more than twice what the Celtics are receiving.
Los Angeles’ percentage is currently between 8-9% as it gets ready to host the Minnesota Timberwolves in the opening round. Before acquiring Dončić, the Lakers were only getting less than a 2% chance.
Similarly, the Cleveland Cavaliers were at 1.5% to win it all (per Polymarket) when the 2024-25 season began. As Cleveland built the top record in the Eastern Conference, the Cavs’ odds rose to as high as 16.7% and settled at 13%.
Are the favorites the same on sportsbooks and prediction sites?
When comparing what the prediction markets say to what the sportsbooks offer, we see no change in terms of who heads the list. Oklahoma City is essentially the consensus favorite — although the Thunder share +185 championship odds with Boston on FanDuel.
There is, however, a bit of disparity in the numbers. DraftKings has OKC’s odds at +165, while Boston is at +190. BetMGM has the Thunder at +175 and the Celtics at +220. The Cavaliers are third across the books, getting as low as +490 and as high as +650, while the Lakers’ number ranges from +1000 to +1600.
Slightly higher payout potential on Kalshi, Polymarket
What does all this mean in terms of pricing and value? Well, let’s take Oklahoma City’s +175 from BetMGM and Kalshi’s 33% odds. A winning $10 bet at +175 gives the player $17.50 more. But if the same amount is placed on Kalshi, the player could make $20.77 if the Thunder win it all.
If we take Boston at FanDuel’s +185, we could earn $18.50. The 31% Kalshi odds offer a $22.77 profit. So, the math reveals a small difference.
There is a sizable difference between OKC and Boston and the rest of the teams. Even though the Celtics didn’t get the top seed in the conference, they have support. Last year’s championship win and the return of most players boost their chances. Plus, the perception is that the East has very few hurdles. Boston has taken care of the New York Knicks, who are likely their second-round opponents. They might also face a Cavaliers team that lacks experience in deep playoff runs. The Thunder could find themselves in new territory if they reach the conference finals. However, OKC has ruled the conference during the regular season. Their roster is as deep as any in the NBA.
Now onto conference-winning odds.
The West was a complete scramble for determining playoff positioning over the final weeks. The lone exception was figuring out the top seed. Oklahoma City was well ahead of the pack. The Thunder have -150 odds on FanDuel and other books, meaning a $10 winning bet would lead to a $6.67 profit. Kalshi gives them 56% odds, meaning a successful $10 bet on “Yes” would result in an additional $7.92 return.
The Lakers are next at anywhere between +500 and +600 at sportsbooks and 15-17% on the prediction market side. The Golden State Warriors were commonly ranked as the third favorite even before their play-in victory over the Memphis Grizzlies.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Clippers have snuck in behind their Los Angeles neighbors on Polymarket. This is certainly a result of their eight-game win streak entering the playoffs. However, sites like DraftKings and BetRivers still have them behind Golden State and the Denver Nuggets.
The East has much more uniformity. Boston is the only team with minus odds and is close to 60% per Kalshi and Polymarket. Betting $10 on the Celtics at 58% earns an extra $7.56 if successful. This price is close to BetMGM’s odds of -140, which are the lowest among major sportsbooks.
Cleveland is hovering around the low 30% mark, with DraftKings giving them the most favorable number at +210 and the potential of $21 if a $10 bet wins. Taking the Cavs with Kalshi’s 32% odds gets the player slightly less ($20.77, to be exact).
The Knicks are a distant third, with the Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks even heavier longshots. All three have odds below 10%. However, sportsbooks show a bigger gap with New York compared to Indiana and Milwaukee. Clearly, taking a risk with the Knicks presents a much loftier reward via predictions. Buying New York at $0.07 would net $132.99 if it reaches the Finals for the first time in 26 years. Taking the Knicks on Caesars at +1200, the best price really available prior to the playoffs, has the chance to put an extra $120 in the bank account with a $10 bet.
Sportsbooks might feel comfortable and reliable for some. But right now, prediction markets offer better chances for returns.
